The predictive performance of the Natural Flow Statistics Models may vary according to local conditions. The following is a list of significant, but not comprehensive, issues that need to be considered when estimating flows within ungauged catchments:

  • Care needs to be taken when interpreting the results in smaller groundwater catchments in which river flows may be strongly influenced by point geological controls (such as spring lines and swallow holes).
  • A catchment water balance is assumed, which may be incorrect in smaller groundwater fed catchments where part of the regional groundwater flow bypasses the surface water catchment.
  • The estimation of Mean Flow is based on a 1km grid of long term average annual runoff, derived using the CERF rainfall runoff model and calibrated using the outputs of a deterministic water balance model using observed data from over 500 gauged catchments. The predictive performance of the model may therefore be reduced in areas of low rainfall gauge density.
  • Care needs to be taken when interpreting the result in very small catchments as the size of the catchment approached the spatial resolution of the underlying catchment characteristic datasets (1 km²). For very small catchments it is recommended that the topographic contributing catchment is confirmed by a site walkover to identify any unmapped features that might modify the catchment area.
  • Where available local measured flow data should be used to corroborate the flow estimates, which is good practice when using any generalised hydrological model.